A birthday cake sits before you, covered in small flames. You notice an empty box labelled ‘Trick Candles’ across the room. You think to yourself, “It’s very likely that, if I blow on these candles, I will look like a fool. I do not want to look like a fool on my birthday.” You refuse to blow on the candles. Here you deliberate on the basis of the following conditional: Will that, if you blow on the candles, you will look like a fool. Your high degree of confidence in Will, together with your desire not to look like a fool, leads you not to blow on the candles. Call this Scenario 1.